The holiday season is finally here, and it’s time to gear up, head to your local holiday store, and pick up all your Christmas essentials. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that the average consumer will spend $890 per person this year on items such as gifts, decorations, and food. This is the second-highest per-person spending level the NRF has recorded in the past 23 years.
Retail sales for November and December 2025 are expected to increase between 3.7 percent and 4.7 percent, meaning total holiday spending is likely to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in history. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told journalists, “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity.” Although this year is predicted to be a healthy season, it is not necessarily because consumers are spending more—prices are simply higher.
Prices for many holiday staples have risen sharply in recent years. Data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) illustrates just how much costs have climbed. The price of gift wrap has increased 3.1 percent since last year. Postage and delivery services are 4.7 percent more expensive, and candy prices have jumped 9.8 percent. These are just a few examples of the growing costs shoppers are facing.
Even though holiday spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion, retail price inflation running above 2 percent means that actual economic growth compared to last year will be relatively flat. Fortunately, shoppers can still find plenty of deals this season. A study conducted by Empower reports that 43 percent of Americans plan to do their holiday shopping around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Regarding economic uncertainty, Shay added, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices, given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
