The Upper Peninsula is known for its extreme winters and heavy snowfall. Last year, however, was abnormally mild. Last winter the peninsula had just over 153 inches of snow, significantly less than the average of 202 inches per year. The temperature last winter was higher as well; in January, the average high was 36 degrees, in February it was 42 degrees, and in March it was 43 degrees. The historical average high temperature in the UP over the winter months is 28 degrees. For the upcoming winter season, predictions are looking bright for those who enjoy the snow.
A La Niña is present this year in the Pacific Ocean, which occurs when the sea surface temperatures of the tropical regions of the Pacific are cooler than normal. The Old Farmers’ Almanac predicts the Upper Peninsula will have a mild and dry winter, while the western side of the mitten is expected to be colder. They are also predicting less precipitation than normal again. However, the old almanac predicted a heavy snow winter last year and was wrong for almost all of the country.
The new Farmers’ Almanac predicts a cold, wet, and white winter across all of Michigan. This is based on the La Niña effects from the Pacific. However, like the old almanac, the new farmers’ almanac was wrong about last year.
AccuWeather is guessing that the mitten and the eastern Upper Peninsula will be one to two degrees warmer than the previous years. The Keweenaw and the western UP are expected to remain the same as previous years. AccuWeather also predicts an uptick in snowfall for the UP and the northern end of the mitten. Lake effect is expected to pick up in December.
Given that the predictions were all wrong last year, it brings into question the validity of current predictions, or how the winter will shape up.
